Friday, September 16, 2011

It Alters Your Mind

In The Big Short, one of the investors who saw the subprime collapse coming said that one day he realized something:

"We turned off CNBC," said Danny Moses. "It became very frustrating that they weren't in touch with reality anymore. If something negative happened, they'd spin it positive. If something positive happened, they'd blow it out of proportion. It alters your mind. You can't be clouded with stuff like that."

"It alters your mind."

In the November Awake, there is a great article about DNA.  When I was in school, I was taught that 98% of our DNA is "junk," left over from evolutionary dead-ends.  The idea immediately felt wrong to me, for multiple reasons, but I never pursued a better answer.

A single scientist coined the term in his paper So Much 'Junk' DNA in Our Genome.  That single paper repelled other scientists from studying this noncoding DNA.  It turns out, of course, that this DNA is not junk at all, but codes for important regulatory RNA.  But that took much longer to figure out than it should have.

That paper altered the minds of these scientists.

This happens all the time.  We may have a very well-defined and well-supported position on something, but if we hear something to the contrary, it 'clouds' us, as Danny put it.

Maybe this has happened to you, because it's happened to me:

The internet is great in that it is an excellent medium for two-way communication.  Articles and blogs often allow for comments.  Now, at first glance, this seems like a great way to have a discussion and develop the points even further.

But here's what often happens to me.  I read a well-thought-out article on whatever subject.  I think, "Hmm, this makes sense.  The author seems to be an expert on this topic.  His arguments are clearly laid out.  I like it."

But then I read one or two comments.  Invariably, one or more comments disparage the author and his article.  Usually, the commentor presents no valid reasons for his criticisms.  He presents no credentials to establish himself as an authority on the topic.  And he offers no satisfactory counter-proposals.

I understand all of this.  Yet, his comment has already done damage to my view of the article.

It altered my mind.

This is, albeit, a silly example.  But it is one that is easily observable today.  There is so much information readily available, and so many people spouting their opinions, that this kind of mind-altering is ubiquitous.

How do we fight it?  As usual, the first step is identifying the issue.  Only then can we protect our mind from being altered.

Danny had to turn off CNBC.  I have decided to stop reading the comments.  

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Infrastructure

I've really tried to not use this blog as a vehicle for complaining.  I hate complaining.  So I'm going to try to write this post without that tone.

The US has its share of difficulties.  But one thing that I, as an American, had taken for granted was its infrastructure.  I had taken it for granted, that is, until I moved to Argentina.

In the US, basic stuff just works.  You have water, power, gas, electricity, internet, phone, etc. without having to think about it.  That frees you up to focus on other things.  It would seem ridiculous for an Ameican to be without any of these things for any amount of time, barring some natural distaster.  And it would seem equally ridiculous to have to periodically get on the phone and fight with these companies to restore service.

Now let's talk about Argentina.  Where to begin?  Did I mention I didn't have gas for 8 months?  Or that periodically the water doesn't work because they are cleaning the tank?  Or that I've lost power more times than I care to count?  Or that my internet connection will randomly go off?  (Sometimes due to workers accidentally cutting through the cable.)  More than once I lost my internet connectivity in the middle of a business transaction and I had to take my laptop to a McDonalds with working wifi to finish it.

So why write about this now?  I tried to add credit to my cell phone line.  Such a simple thing.  I use a prepaid line and so recharging it involves buying a card with a number you punch in. 

Lo and behold: there was no number on my card.  I took it back to the store.  They said to call a number and talk to the phone company directly.  We called.  After much playing with the phone tree, the lady said the line has been recharged.  I checked.  Nope.  Called again.  More phone tree action.  Another lady said the line has been recharged.  This time it did indeed work. 

Now, I had also purchased a second card.  I decided to check if it was also lacking the number.  Yep.  So I went back to the store again and told them now a second card was missing the number and that I would like another card - you know, one that is not defective. 

They said its not their problem.  I said selling something defective certainly is their problem.  Ah, but I forgot: this is Argentina.  So I just told them I wouldn't return to their store.  Ah, but I forgot again: this is Argentina - they wouldn't care. 

You see, in the US, companies will bend over backwards to try to make their customers happy and thus keep them as customers.  But in Argentina, companies feel they are doing you a favor by letting you use their services.  It's probably part of the reason why the economy is terrible and getting worse by the day. 

All told, the endeavor wasted about an hour of my time (as well as that of my friend's, who helped translate) and about 14 pesos of credit on my phone. 

Update (9/16/11): So today I decided to use that second card.  This time when we called the phone company, they said they could not recharge the line over the phone, even though they had earlier.  Great.  They said to go to Corrientes 301 to the Movistar center and do it in person.  

Now this is obviously silly, but it is only the beginning, my friend.  I went to Corrientes 301.  There is no Movistar place there.  Now I'm upset.  I start heading back home.  On the way, I see a Movistar place.  I stop there, tell them about my card with no number.  They said I erased the number.  I said that, no, I didn't.  There is no number.  They say "ah no, we don't handle that here, go to that place over there."  

Have you ever seen one of those cartoons where the character gets angry and his face turns red like a thermometer?   

So I go to the second place.  "Ah no, we don't handle that here, go to this other place."  

There are no words.

I get to the third place.  I tell them my problem.  "That will be a 40 minute wait."  I express my dissatisfaction. But after the wait, I am happy to say I did indeed get my 30 pesos charged on my phone line.  This adventure added another hour and a half wasted.

Ok, one more.  If you rent your apartment here, you not only have to pay the rent and utilities, but also "expenses."  These are like common charges in a condo back in the US.  To pay them, you have to go to a bank and deposit the funds directly into the common account.

Now, banks here always have lines.  I would say I wait an average of 10 minutes when I go to pay these expenses.  And you can't use your cell phone while in line.  Not even to play a game, listen to music, or read something.  In fact, all banks have a guard whose sole purpose, as far as I can tell, is to prevent you from using your cell phone.

So the other day I decided to try paying the expenses using an automated deposit machine rather than waiting in line for a human teller.  A girl at the bank was very helpful in helping me with the machine.  My bill amounted to 669 pesos.  She got the envelope ready.  I had 700.  I asked if that was ok.  She said yes.

So I inserted the envelope and the machine spit out a receipt.  She said it was all set.  But asked her about my change.  She looked surprised/confused.  "The machine doesn't give you change."

"So how do I get it?"

"You can't."

"That is ridiculous."

"If you want change, you have to make the deposit at the human teller."

Now, when faced with a completely illogical statement, I often do not know how to respond.  It's like my brain is trying to process this input to find some semblance of reason.  And if it can't, it simply treats the input as garbage and determines that as such it does not necessitate a response.  So I just left.

So, my fellow Americans, yes you have problems in the States.  But appreciate the little things that just work.  At least, for now.

Monday, September 5, 2011

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine

Another excellent book.  In it, Michael Lewis follows a handful of investors who foresaw the bursting of the subprime mortgage bond bubble.  They made massive bets on the collapse of the financial system that nearly brought the world to a halt in 2008.  Of course, they made tens of millions of dollars each during that crisis.

While the narrative is certainly sapid, the most salient point is made in the epilogue: the financial system is still broken.  Maybe these few investors were vultures in making obscene amounts of money betting on a collapse, but the bigger problem is that no real measures were taken to prevent such a collapse in the future.  The US government just threw money at the problem to make it appear to go away.  No lessons were learned.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.  - Upton Sinclair

A collapse will happen again.  Maybe something else will trigger it next time.  But in one way or another, greed will rear its ugly head.  With a vengeance.