Hippocrates' Shadow

A recent study has just revealed that mammograms actually don't reduce cancer deaths:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/mammograms-lead-to-overdiagnosis-have-little-impact-on-deaths-study-1.1048226

This is, of course, bad news.  However, Dr David Newman totally called this back in 2008 in his completely underrated book, Hippocrates' Shadow.  You can buy it here:

http://www.amazon.com/Hippocrates-Shadow-Secrets-House-Medicine/dp/B002BWQ4U0

Now, one may think that it would be better to err on the side of caution and get mammograms anyway.  I thought that too.  However, the doc goes on to show that, between the procedure itself and the misdiagnoses, the net result of mammograms on society is actually negative.

The book is essentially a compilation of many such problems this doctor sees with the US health system.  They are truly eye-opening to an outsider.  Here is the table of contents:

Eye-catching, no?

I thought it was a great read in 2008, and the publishing of this study made me revisit and wonder: what else is this guy right about?

The Molecule That Shaped Society

Oxytocin.  It is a hormone that performs many functions in mammals, most notably the binding of mothers to their families, particularly their children.  It looks something like this:

Given its function, we could actually call it 'the empathy molecule.'  It is what makes people feel the joy and pain of other people.  It increases trust and reduces fear.  Hence, its role in familial binding is obvious.  But the implications of this are far-reaching.

The family unit is a microcosm of society as a whole.  Society is, of course, made up of families.  And society is, just as obviously, defined by the myriad social interactions of its members.  We all have certain norms and expectations of those interactions, independent of our culture.  For example, when having a conversation, you do not expect the other person to pull out a knife and stab you.  It is oxytocin that defines these norms - mostly based on empathy.  Therefore, we could say without exaggeration that oxytocin is the molecule that shapes society.

Indeed, the inability to secrete it is linked with psychopathy and sociopathy.

Since our happiness (or any emotional state) is simply the balance of such molecules in our brains, it's important to pay attention to what they are, why they are secreted, and how they interact with each other.  Ignoring or fighting our own biochemistry is a losing battle.

Paul Zak gave a great TED talk on exactly this:

Experience Resolution

Have you ever had a conversation and realized that the two of you were talking about slightly different things?  If so, you're ahead of the curve, especially if you stop and clarify the nature of the difference.  Many people don't realize this and continue simply to defend their point.  I've seen this so much that I wrote a post about it here:

http://onexerxes.blogspot.in/2011/01/cost-of-fixing-defects.html

I spent some time thinking about why this happens.  Why do we end up talking about different things?  A large part, I'm sure, is simply poor communication: perhaps we just don't articulate our idea properly.

But I think that an even larger part is that, often, we just don't have the experience to speak to a certain point.  So we [subconsciously?] pick the closest thing in our experience and speak on that.  Now, I'm using the word 'experience' a little loosely here.  I don't just mean what we have personally been through.  I also mean that which we may know through studying, conversing, or any other kind of learning.

I visualize it like this:

Imagine that the field represents all possible topics.  The black dots in the field represent our particular experiences.  The ring around each dot represents the topical area that we may feel is close enough to our experience to justify applying our experiential knowledge to the topic at hand.  So if the red dot is the topic at hand, we would apply our experience from the black dot in the center of the appropriate ring.  The area inside this ring, but outside of the black dot itself, is the area of experience mismatch.  This is the area that often leads to misunderstandings and disagreements.

If the red dot were to lie outside any ring, we would not speak on the topic at all.  Unfortunately, this is not a place most people want to be in.  This is the reason we have the rings in the first place: to expand our range of what we can speak about.  As the saying goes, "People don't care what you know.  They care even less about what they don't know.  What they do care about is what they know."

The image makes it immediately clear why two people would end up speaking about different things: because they have different experiences.  But it doesn't stop there.

The dot analogy may look familiar and that's because it is similar to the way pixels in a monitor, TV or phone work.  The dots come together to make up an image we see.  The more dots, the sharper the picture.  We refer to that as resolution.

So the lesson is not that we need to have the same experiences as someone else to communicate effectively with them.  The lesson is that there are two ways to increase our effectiveness: increase our experience resolution and decrease our experience mismatch zone.  

Increasing our resolution is definitely great, but that takes time and effort.  Decreasing the mismatch zone, however, could be done very easily.  Consider this field, with the zone removed entirely:

Wow, that leaves us much fewer topics to be able to discuss, right?  True.  But it also means that the quality and accuracy of the remaining discussions will be very high.  But to pull this off, it requires that when we don't know something, we say that we don't know it.  That's hard for a lot of people (especially men, actually).

The bright side is that if we remove these rings, we may realize our resolution is low and be moved to increase it.  So the ideal would look something like this:

  Wouldn't that be great?   

Phuket - My Story

The following is from a guest writer who traveled with me to Phuket a few weeks back.  I present to you, completely unedited by me, his experience:

It was April 5, 2012 when I was travelling to Hyderabad along with my mother for an important function. A friend of mine agreed to drive us in his car to the venue. While we were in the car, he informed me that a friend of his was going to join us too.  Suddenly on the busy streets of Hyderabad he pulled over and as he did an amazing personality entered in the car and sat next to the driver’s seat. That was the first time I met Xerxes. After we were introduced we didn’t speak till about 15 minutes as I was too busy on my phone. But once I was done, reluctantly, I started a conversation which lasted for about 30 minutes and ended with us exchanging our phone numbers. Little did I know that those 30 minutes of conversation would eventually take me to Thailand with Xerxes. Yes friends, I travelled to Phuket in September 2012 with a person I only met for 30 minutes.

My trip began with a message from Xerxes while I was still waiting at the Mumbai airport for my plane. The message read, “Are you ready to rock?” and I replied “Yes”.  I was absolutely unaware at that time that this was indeed going to be a rocking trip. What followed was a funny and an exciting trip, the memories of which I will always cherish.

I was waiting at the Bangkok airport for my connecting flight to Phuket when Xerxes walked into the waiting lounge. This was the first time I was meeting him after April. After exchanging the routine greetings we proceed for some breakfast.  Now, what caught his attention was a ‘Tuna pie with some corn’ at McDonalds. He was in stitches each moment thereafter till he finally captured it on his camera and subsequently uploaded it on his facebook page. I kept on looking at him in amazement with so many emotions crossing my mind. I still don’t understand what was so funny about the ‘tuna pie’?

When we landed in Phuket we hired a cab and began our hour long journey to the hotel. In the cab I was, as always reluctant to strike a conversation, but Xerxes broke the ice and asked me a few questions about what I did for a living. I was pleasantly surprised to find someone who didn’t pry too much. As the conversation progressed, I was slowly but surely discovering an awesome person inside this funny man. You will note that I will now use the word ‘awesome’ quite often in this blog for all the right reasons.

‘Xerxes, why do you jump to conclusions and state them as established facts?’ That was exactly what I said at one point in time during our cab ride to the hotel. Why, you may ask. Well, because that is exactly what he kept on doing all the time in the cab. Simply jumping to some conclusions about me and stating them like they were some established laws of physics. From this point on we had this banter going on between the two of us. This was the first time that I was being myself on a trip with someone I barely knew. At times he would say something out of the context and I would slowly just nod my head apparently in comprehension. Finally, we arrived at our hotel and were warmly welcomed by the staff and given a cool and refreshing welcome drink. Our room was very comfortably done up, the pillows, curtains and restaurant menus well placed t demonstrated that considerable effort had obviously gone into making the room look homely.

In the afternoon we had to get to a meeting where we met up with some interesting people who gave us such a warm welcome.  On our way back we were busy planning our next three days. Surprisingly, without much debate, (which is not what one would expect in the company of complicated Xerxes) we knew what we needed to do during this action packed and fun loaded trip. As we got back to our hotel, we were dead tired and just need to chill or crash. So there we were at the bar enjoying some good cocktails. I capitulated. Nonetheless, I demurred and prayed that these cocktails were good. After a while Xerxes told me I should not be too uptight and start trying all things I have never done. Well, I must admit I loved all the cocktails that he suggested I should try.

Suddenly, Xerxes asked me if I had watched the ‘Gangnam style’ video on YouTube. I wasn’t sure what he was talking about as at times he just speaks to himself (basically, I meant he isn’t clear at times). As soon as I replied with a sharp no to his question, in a heartbeat he got his phone out and showed me the video on YouTube. Reluctantly, I took the phone and began to watch the video. After the video was over, we headed to our room. Surprisingly, I was now humming the song ‘gangnam style’. Yes, the magic of this clown had just only begun to work on me.

The next morning we were ready to take off to the exotic Phi Phi islands. Snorkelling, swimming and cocktails was all awaiting us. I was looking forward to getting some of my best photographs here. I thought that I had a good photographer in Xerxes along with me. But all my hopes were crushed and broken to pieces as you will now see.

As we reached the exotic islands, I jumped to joy to see the blue sky, clear waters and white sand. I asked Xerxes if he could take my jumping shots to which he obliged. After I was done with my photograph I asked him if he would like me to take a jumping shot for him too. I was shocked with his response. He said that he used to jump a lot but then he stopped as he suddenly turned nine. That reply annoyed me and in the face of this masterful disinterest I immediately protested saying,” Xerxes, you have the emotional intelligence of a fifteen year old lad”.  He laughed back far too loudly. “What?” He asked.

Phi Phi islands were simply exotic I was still mesmerised by its sheer beauty. The sea water was beautifully ornamented with corals and shells. I asked Xerxes to take a solo picture of me on a small bridge that connected two lovely stretches on the beach. He clicked my picture, however, he got another person into my picture. I was disgusted and objected loudly, ‘Xerxes, how could you not see this person”. He simply laughed and kept his signature giggle look on his face. I was flabbergasted until understanding dawned. I had now just begun to realise that seeing me annoyed would heighten his joy.  “What a sadist”, I said to myself. During the afternoon lunch, he saw a stray cat sitting by our table. He immediately starts playing with the cat. I think Xerxes really misses his cat ‘Tigger’ at home. Now, as for me I’m too nervous when it comes to touching animals. I knew Xerxes was aware about it. However, he forced me in his own subtle way to touch this stray cat. I wasn’t sure what I was supposed to do- succumb to this force or say a loud no. But he reminded me of his words to try new things and to which I said – “ok I should do this”. So submissive that I am I touched this cat and eventually ended up liking the whole experience. Finally, I touched a cat. Yippee!!!!!

Once we reached the calmer part of the islands we did snookering and the underwater world got me spellbound. We gradually approached the beach and I was all geared up to swim. I had told Xerxes that I was a poor swimmer and hence I had carried my arm bands (they help your hands float in the water) along with me. Xerxes was again in stitches and asked me to put them on so that he could take a picture of me. But I was not sure why would anyone want to do that. But with this clown (Xerxes) anything was possible.

Finally, the day culminated as we took some final photographs with our Phi Phi island tour guide. As we reached the hotel, I unhesitantly removed my camera from the bag to take a look at the photographs taken. Every picture captured by Xerxes which was intended to be my solo photo had someone from the trip inside it. I was hot under the collar but I looked at Xerxes simultaneously also trying to mask my disgust and said, ‘Xerxes, Awesome is an understatement to describe your awesomeness’ (Great sarcasm there). But seeing his expressions and smile, my disgust almost evaporated. I must point out that he has an impeccable comic timing.

In the night we went to the bar to chill out. Today I tired ‘Grand Marnier’ for the first time, all thanks to Xerxes.  While I was enjoying my drink, Xerxes took a few photos of me enjoying my drinks, and there was one photo that he really looked at and laughed his head off. He called it ‘The Samir look’. I’m still wondering why.  Eventually, we headed to our room and at about 1 am in the morning, our room phone rang. It was my family from India just concerned how I was getting along. Since I was fast asleep, Xerxes answered the phone. He tired to wake me up by calling out my name a loud. But all his efforts seemed to be in vain.  Suddenly, out of nowhere a book was thrown at me and I got up in fear. Upon realising that he has just thrown a book at me to wake me up I just hit the ceiling and shouted,”Xerxes, you are horrible” He silently replied, “What am I suppose to do, you simply refused to get up”. I just ignored and went back to my deep dreamless sleep.

The next morning at the breakfast table, Xerxes was narrating about his stay in Argentina. Those stories bored me to death but I patiently did some generous listening as he was narrating his experiences from Argentina with excitement. However, when my brains had finally frozen, I exclaimed, ‘Xerxes Argentina’s gain was India loss’ indicating that India was unfortunate to have him here.  

The next morning we had to go for elephant trekking. Both of us were equally excited about this as we hadn’t ever sat on an elephant. As soon as we reached the spot, I was surprised to see a memory of elephants all eating, playing and enjoying themselves. Xerxes caught sight of a calf who was only a year and a half old. Since he loves animals he started playing with this calf. I too wanted to try it but couldn’t gather the courage. Xerxes did insist that I touch this calf once, but I just couldn’t.

Now it was time to finally sit on one of them. But even before we sat something really funny happened. As soon as the elephant on which we were to ride arrived, Xerxes sat first on the left keeping a seat for me at the right. However, little did he know that there was going to be a big imbalance if I didn’t sit immediately. I could see some amount of fear of falling off the elephant into his eyes. He looked at me with irritation and said, “Could you sit fast, there is a lot of imbalance here”. But I pretended I couldn’t understand what he was saying and continued looking disinterested. Seeing the fear, irritation and annoyance on his face almost made my day. Believe, me seeing all those emotions on his face all at the same time, was a treat to my eyes. I was so much enjoying it. I too discovered that I was enjoying seeing him annoyed in a funny way though.  But then I finally sat and we bagan our ride.

The elephant ride was quite an adventure. After a few minutes the elephant owner asked if anyone of us would like to sit on the elephant head. Xerxes said he would go for it. Trust me as he sat there, he was drowned in fear but he kept a pleasant smile on his face throughout. After a while when he found it difficult to hide his fear any longer he asked if he could move back again. All of this was really hilarious.

Our next destination was ‘Big Buddha’. Like always I wanted to get a solo picture of myself capturing the entire statute. But Xerxes got my picture with someone else again in it. By this time I was getting used to it.  We were now on our way back. All this while the only thing in my mind was that I wanted to touch that elephant calf once. So on the way back we did cross the spot where this calf was tied. So I asked the driver to stop the car and requested Xerxes to take my picture while I played with he calf. I went to the calf all armed with courage and fearlessness. I touched it and surprisingly the calf began to play with me. A unique sense of joy and accomplishment engulfed me!

On our way back to the hotel, I told him, ‘Xerxes, tonight I’m going to finish all my calls before I sleep, so that no one wakes me up by throwing books at me’. I enjoyed myself making such tongue-in-cheek remarks. Xerxes looked at me and said in a voice only starting to reassert his authority, “Well, I thought you would want to finish your calls before we sleep so that the phone doesn’t disturb me?” But I looked at him with my normal sincerity and said, ‘”That is certainly not my priority”. He seemed dismayed and settled back in his seat while I continued grinning.  We got back to our hotel in the afternoon and headed straight to the beach.  Once we were done we headed for a late lunch to ‘Buffalo steak house’. Again this was the first time I tried some pork only on much insistence from Xerxes. Before we left we had an amazing ‘Irish coffee’. On the way back, right in the middle of the street I caught sight of a classy fountain. Without any hesitation I commanded, “Xerxes, take my photograph here”. I was pleasantly surprised that for once he actually did a good job. What is even more surprising is that fact that Xerxes responded well to my command.  Quiet often during this trip, he usually told me that he wouldn’t respond well to commands if at all I ever commanded.

We now reached our hotel and crashed for the afternoon. In the evening we headed for dinner to a classy place called ‘Mom Tri’s Kitchen’ at Villa Royale.  The food was sumptuous and sublime. On the way back to the hotel, I was very tired as it was an action packed day at the beach additionally the walk back was long. But Xerxes seemed all charged up and he was walking like he had some sort of wheels under his feet.  Now I started whining, ‘Xerxes can you slow down a bit, I’m tired’? He smiled but slowed down eventually. Well after a while, again he accelerated his wheels now I was left with no option but to start my series of whines as he was driving me up a wall, “ Xerxes, I have swam the whole day”, “this is quiet a long walk”, “My feet are hurting”, “I don’t have wheels to my feet unlike you”. Xerxes was having a hearty laugh and the smile on his face refused to fade and after a while I was enjoying myself too pulling his leg.

By the end of these 3 days, I must honestly acknowledge that I had given Xerxes some of the best or perhaps most of the best laughs, smiles and giggles of his life.  I’m sure he won’t deny that acknowledgement”

By now I had tried almost nine new things that I usually wouldn’t t have tried.  On the final morning, I saw many pillows fallen down next to Xerxes’ bed, so I innocently asked him, “did you wrestle with someone in your dreams last night?”. He instantly and almost without any hesitation replied, “No, I dreamt that the phone rang last night and I threw all these pillows at you instead of the books”. This time I was in stitches at the sheer impish tone of his response. We now checked out of the hotel leaving our luggage there and went to grab some lunch. It was a very nice day but equally hot and humid. That afternoon during my lunch I tried some amazing apple beer (again for the first time) while Xerxes had some cheery beer in quite a girly glass.

On the way back to the hotel to collect our luggage, I spotted a good view of the mountains and again commanded, “Xerxes take my photograph here”. This time with the camera in his hands he said sternly, “Don’t you know, I don’t respond well to commands?” I effortlessly said, “Take my photograph and this is a command.” I was again surprised to see him oblige. By this time I was enjoying myself simply commanding this funny man and see him obey.

On our way to the airport, I just showed Xerxes my arm bands which I didn’t use while swimming. Xerxes cautiously took out his camera and without a moment’s pause directed me to put them on. I refused initially but then eventually did it to make him happy.  That was almost the end of our trip. Phuket is such a wonderful place that every vein in my body was pulsating with life all through my stay there.

Oh, before I forget, this blog was to originally be written by Xerxes himself. But suddenly in the trip he insisted I write it.  On the way back I do remember pleading before him like an innocent person in a trail before a judge but Xerxes seemed unmoved. So finally, giving up I disappointedly said, “Fine, I’ll write it but remember I’m another number to the list of people you have saddened”. Again this was a tongue-in-cheek remark. On arriving at the airport I rushed to check in and after completing my formalities I proceed to the counter where Xerxes was standing. His flight was cancelled so he ending up staying another night in Thailand.

Xerxes quiet often mentioned during this trip that he had changed my life, but at the end of it I know that more than him, I have changed his life… and this is something that even Xerxes cannot contest.

Warp Drive Also Inching Closer

It is number 3 on my project list:

http://onexerxes.blogspot.in/2012/01/my-project-list.html

And now, people are not laughing at it quite so hard:

http://news.yahoo.com/warp-drive-may-more-feasible-thought-scientists-161301109.html

Fun times ahead!

Why Everything We Do to Motivate People Is Wrong

There is a mismatch between what science knows and what business does.  I mentioned this some time ago in this post:

http://onexerxes.blogspot.com/2010/06/money-doesnt-motivate-people.html

Basically the point is that for sophisticated tasks, money doesn't motivate people.  Actually, any extrinsic rewards do not motivate people.  You need intrinsic motivation.  Dan Pink puts it really well in the below video, quoting my favorite behavioral economist, Dan Ariely:

There Is No Higgs Boson

The scientific community is astir this week as CERN may have found the Higgs Boson.  This is a theoretical particle thought to be what gives matter mass.  It is has been predicted by the Standard Model of Quantum Mechanics, but has yet to be observed.

CERN has been cautiously optimistic, but is clear that much more testing needs to be done to confirm.

So many have been asking this week: exactly how does the Higgs give mass to other particles?  You can check out a simple answer here:

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_field

The even simpler answer is that this particle interacts with the so-called Higgs Field.  The Higgs Field exists everywhere in the universe.  The field somehow converts some of the potential energy of the particle to what we perceive as mass.

So: there is an invisible field throughout the universe that allows mass to happen.

Does this sound familiar?  It should.

About a hundred years ago, a surprisingly similar idea existed: ether.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminiferous_aether

This theory stated that light was able to travel across the universe because (surprise!) there is an invisible field throughout the universe that allows it to happen.  The now-famous Michelson-Morley experiment basically disproved it.

But here we are again.  Again, we can't understand how something works and so are attributing it to some pervasive, universal, invisible field.  Really, guys?

I'll be honest: I never liked the Standard Model with its Higgs Field.  I think it is inelegant, non-deterministic, and overly complicated.  But can I really say that the Higgs Boson doesn't exist and that the Standard Model is wrong?  No, I guess I can't.  I just wanted an attention-grabbing title to this post.

But I can say that it just feels wrong.  Of course, that is unscientific, but it's all I have at this point.  I suspect that, eventually, these physicists will realize that they didn't find the Higgs.  And then that the Standard Model is the wrong model.  That would be a good thing, because it would open the floor to strange, new models... one of which may be correct.

The Knowledge Stream Keeps Inching Closer

I first mentioned the Knowledge Stream in my project list post.  In case you didn't get to read about it, the Knowledge Stream is a network of neural implants.  The idea is that all human knowledge could be shared instantaneously, without being restricted to a certain language.  The Stream would contain representations of information and concepts in a form mirroring that of your brain itself.

Anyone could subscribe to any feed of knowledge and get updates as they are published.  Likewise, anyone could search the Stream simply by thinking about the question or topic.

Anyway, the reason I'm writing about it again is because since the last post, there have been so many articles that are related to this.  They each cover a piece of the technology required.  Here is the latest one in which researchers created neural implants that are powered by your own body chemistry:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2405796,00.asp

I'm telling you, it's going to happen!

Spain Is Too Big to Fail - But It Will

There has been a lot of focus on Greece's financial state lately.  And rightly so, because its total debt (including unfunded liabilities) is about 11 times its GDP.

But, realistically, Greece's economy has never added much value to the European Union.  The EU had a GDP of about 12 trillion euro in 2010.  Greece only contributed 230 billion euro, or less than 2%.

Spain, however, is the weakest of the big contributors.  Its GDP was 1.6 trillion, or 13% of the EU.  And Spain has debt and unfunded liabilities totaling 6 times its GDP.

To put things in perspective, the US had debt equal to about 2 times its GDP in 1929... and we all know it took the Great Depression to unwind that debt.

So what's the point?  Spain will default.  And its economy is too big for the EU to save it.

In fact, its key index is already poised for a crash.  Notice the head and shoulders pattern in the IBEX:

Spain will likely trigger the EU collapse.  And that will then trigger a global collapse.  After all, US debt is currently 8 times its GDP:

Yep.

The Age of Spin

They call it the Information Age.  And it is certainly an appropriate designation.  The amount of information available at our fingertips today is unprecedented.  You can answer any question by pulling your phone out of your pocket and clicking around a bit.  Thirty years ago this would have been an impossible dream.

Unfortunately, directly proportional to the increase in information is the increase in "spin."  Spin, as commonly defined, is presenting something in a particularly biased manner.  This results in most people seeing it differently than they would have had it been presented clearly and directly.

This is an election year in the US, so there is spin all over the place.  But even without presidential candidates competing to see who can deceive the greater number of citizens, spin is extremely prevalent today.

For example, let's take a tobacco company and use some made up numbers.  Let's say that the number of cigarette-related deaths has been increasing by an average of 10% a year for the past 30 years.  But last year, they only increased by 5%.  A tobacco company could say, then, that "the growth of cigarette-related death rates is decreasing."  If you saw that quote in a newspaper, you might think that cigarettes are getting safer.  Or, even, that they already are safer.

Is the tobacco company lying?  No.  Are they being dishonest?  Yes.

One might object here and say that they are not being dishonest - that they are actually saying what is true.  Indeed, they are saying what is true.  But they are intentionally phrasing it in a way that would mislead the majority.  That, too, is dishonesty.

Of course, statistics can always be manipulated to support some side of an argument.  But if you demand to see all of the numbers, you can draw your own conclusions.  It becomes trickier when there are no numbers.

This "spin without numbers" can probably best be illustrated by what a lawyer may do on cross-examination.  Some witness presents a very powerful testimony against the defendant.  The defendant's lawyer intentionally poses questions to the witness to weaken his testimony, even if the lawyer really knows inside that the witness is correct.  That is the lawyer's job: to spin.

And here we arrive at the reason why people spin: it is because they care more about their position than the truth.  In the lawyer's case, his position means his paycheck.  So of course he cares about it more than the truth.  For a corporation, its position also means its paycheck.  For other entities, pride could be the reason why they value their position more.  Of course, in an ideal world none of these reasons would take precedence over truth.  

So, back to the Information Age.  A presidential candidate, corporation, or any entity with some position to defend knows that they cannot control the flow of information today.  Information will get out to the public.  So they try to control the spin of that information.  Whichever side can spin it better will win.

This is extremely harmful for all involved.  First, there are those who are deceived by the spin.  Obviously, they are hurt by developing a very biased opinion.  But even those who are not deceived are hurt.  They develop a cynical attitude toward any information.  They view everything as potential spin.  They essentially become calloused to all data and distrustful of any viewpoint.

For example, whenever I read of some scientific study, I always find myself asking 'where did the funding for this study come from?'  That single question, even without an answer, is enough to cast doubt on the validity of the results.  

It is certainly discouraging to see what should be a triumph of technology and knowledge marred by the agendas of powerful people and organizations.  One would think that information ubiquity would reduce dishonesty, but in fact we are seeing quite the opposite.  Imperfect humans will always find a way to be dishonest for selfish reasons.

And, as mentioned, this hurts everyone.

What We Want

I used to think that what we like and want is a deeply personal thing.  That it is something we think about and on which we make a conscious decision.  But after having lived in India for about 2 months, I'm realizing that is not at all the case.

When one arrives in India, it is immediately apparent that behavioral norms, customs, processes, priorities, and aspirations are very different than in the western hemisphere.  That's expected.  But what's interesting is that they like it that way.

For example, let's take a conversation I just had last night.  Where I come from, it is every kid's dream to move out on their own as soon as they become a young adult.  They want their own place and general independence.  In India, that would be viewed as disowning one's family and is thus a very negatively perceived practice.  But young people here want to stay with their families, oftentimes even after they are married.

So what's going on here?  How can one entire society want one thing and another want the opposite?  If what we want is indeed a personal choice, this is not what we would expect.  We would expect a random distribution within each society.

The only reasonable explanation is that what we want is really not our own decision but is largely shaped by our environment.  Perhaps we do have some flexibility within that framework, but we like the framework as a whole because it is what we are used to.

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's a bad thing.  In fact, I'll generalize and say that anytime we choose something implicitly, without truly thinking about it, it's a bad thing.  And that is exactly what we are doing when we choose to like something simply because our environment tells us it's the norm.  

Let me be clear: I am not saying that one or the other view in my example above is good or bad.  I'm saying it's bad to choose one simply because our environment tells us to.

There are some people who buck the trend of choosing to like what their environment dictates.  These are generally viewed as pioneers, visionaries and revolutionaries.  Sometimes they are viewed as heretics and terrorists.  This viewpoint, too, is often determined by the environment.

After arriving here, I was forced to examine for myself why I like or want certain things.  What I found was that I, too, had implicitly chosen things based on what my society expected.  I also found that, even after realizing such, it is a very difficult thing to change what I like and want.  Perhaps I haven't yet encountered sufficient reason to do so.  Not sure.

So what is the point?  I'm afraid I don't really have one.  But I think it's important to realize the depth at which our society can shape us.  At least for me, it is deeper than I thought.

Crossing the Street in an Indian City

... is not for the faint of heart.  And today, my friends, I learned that I am faint of heart.

The best way I can describe it is like a real-life version of Frogger.  I really wanted to record a video of my adventure, but I decided that would be putting my life at extra risk.  

You know how in the US, drivers generally try to stay around 4-6 feet away from pedestrians?  Well, here, it's not feet, it's inches.  And it's not 4-6, it's 0.  It's like they calculate exactly where they need to be to just barely not run you over.  So you better hope you don't trip or hesitate for a second.

Also, in the US, I always assumed that if I wasn't doing anything wrong, I could safely ignore people honking their horn.  So, suffice it to say, I ignored it pretty much all of the time.  Well, here, literally anything can happen at any time.  You can have people going the wrong way down the road, pulling U-turns in the middle of the "lane," cutting across boundaries, driving on the shoulder, jumping onto and off of buses, etc.  So horns are basically constantly blowing.  You just have to determine how close they are being blown to you.  And if it is close, you better see what's going on.

This also makes it very difficult if you are looking for something because you need to be so aware of your immediate surroundings.  In fact, I was looking for something during my walk tonight.  And I didn't find it.

"But aren't there crosswalks?" you ask.  Crosswalks?  Crosswalks?!  Oh, sweet child.  So naive.

But really, this is why I'm here: to experience.  And this is part of it.  If crossing the street was not an adventure, I would have had nothing to write about tonight.

India Begins

I've been in Hyderabad for over a week now.  Even in that little span of time, the experience has been amazing.  I have been spending the bulk of my time in the office, but I did get to tour the city a bit.

My first observation upon arriving at the airport was this:

I don't know why, but I love this picture.  I think it's because it represents the dichotomy of cultures here.

My first day in the office, the majority of the engineers in my department stopped by my office to introduce themselves with a big smile.  I really wasn't expecting that.  I've never had that happen in any other job.  But I thought it was really nice.

I met up with a friend of a friend and quickly became friends with her family.  The first day I met them, they invited me to be a groomsman in the eldest daughter's wedding!

I've always liked Indian food - both at home and in restaurants.  But eating the food here is just a whole new experience.  The tastes are different and everyone eats with their hands.  I have to say I really enjoy it, even though I'm very much a novice.  I'm always a little worried that I'm getting too much food on my hands.  Or that somehow my technique is offensive to the others at the table and they don't want to say anything about it.

This latter concern actually arises in a number of situations.  I don't know if I should take my shoes off upon entering a home.  I don't know if I'm addressing people in the proper manner.  This list goes on and on.  The problem is that views on these things vary by age group, religion, and probably a bunch of other factors.

I went to one day of the Telugu assembly this past weekend.  Here is a photo of lunch:

    
The brothers were super friendly.  I got to meet so many, even many who didn't speak much English.

Now we come to autorickshaws.  These things are simultaneously great and crazy.  Here is what they look like:

They are basically mopeds with three wheels and an outer shell.  They have one bench seat in the back and one seat for the driver.  Today I saw one with 8 adults.  I am not joking.  Here is a short clip of my ride in one going the wrong way on the street.  Just when it looks like he is going to turn and go in the proper lane, he turns and then goes the wrong way down that lane too:

Well, there is a lot more to say about India so far, but I'll stop here for now.

My Project List

I have a terrible memory. Over the past few years, random ideas for projects would pop into my head and then, just as quickly, pop out. It was frustrating. So here I'm going to put my future project list into writing... mostly so I don't forget it.

Wireless Power
One of the biggest hurdles in our current state of technology is energy - particularly portable access to it. Everything from cell phones to electric automobiles is currently at the mercy of battery capacity. So the solution is simple: we kill the Batman battery.

Nikola Tesla did some fantastic work on this concept.  And that was about a hundred years ago.  It is theoretically sound.  We just need to make it happen.

I imagine it will start with portable energy stations, distributing power over a limited radius.  For example, you could drive one up to a construction site to wirelessly power lights and tools.  Eventually, though, entire cities would be energized.  Devices would be registered on the power network and electricity usage would automatically be billed to the device's owner.

The Knowledge Stream
Again, I am frustrated by my poor memory.  But modern tools like the Internet are making memory less and less important.  It's easy to do a quick search on your phone to get the answer to something.  But there are still three problems: 

1) There is still non-trivial effort involved.  You need to have a connected device.  You need to type in your query and wade through results.   

2) This is a "pull" system.  You need to make the above effort to retreive the data, which may or may not actually exist. 

3) This type of search is still, despite current efforts, more syntactic than semantic.  In other words, when we have a query, we need to guess at the keywords and hope that they lead to a relevant result.  There is still no good search engine that understands like a human would.   

The Knowledge Stream solves these three issues.  I imagine it like a constant flow of knowledge available as humankind uncovers it.  Maybe we would have implants in our brains that connect us to it (a la The Matrix), but the implementation is secondary.  Whatever the mechanism, the Stream would solve these three issues:

1) The effort to find knowledge drops dramatically, making it essentially no more difficult than accessing one of our own memories. 

2) You would now have an alternative to seeking out knowledge.  You could simply subscribe to domains that interest you and receive a feed of new knowledge as others discover and "publish" it.

3) The knowledge is not stored as text, but in a format that emulates how concepts are stored in our brains.  So "questioning" becomes simply pattern matching and "learning" becomes simply copying the resultant pattern.  (See my post "Reading is Too Serial" ... hmm ... actually I didn't write that yet.  Ok, it's coming soon.)

Granted, this is a huge undertaking.  But once it is complete, it will accelerate tremendously the pace of scientific and technological progress.

Edit Feb 20, 2012: Google is starting this 
Edit Mar 12, 2012: Getting closer to understanding memory encoding
Edit May 7, 2012: This is really gonna happen

Warp Drive
This was my original project idea.  I have listed it last because I think it will require the previous two to be functional before it becomes probable. 

I'm assuming we all are familiar with warp drive from Star Trek.  If not: it is an engine that allows for faster-than-light travel.  Given the size of our universe, warp drive will be necessary to travel in any meaningful way throughout it. 

So there's the list.  I don't want to attach time estimates to any of the projects because they would be completely arbitrary.  But I'm thinking the three could keep me busy for a thousand years at least.  Anyone want to help?

The Jevons Paradox

It seems like a good idea at first glance.  Low-fat cookies.  So you buy them.  But because they low-fat, you eat more of them than you would have if they were high-fat.  So your total fat intake actually ends up being more.

This is the Jevons Paradox.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/20/101220fa_fact_owen

Jevons frames the concept, though, in terms of energy efficiency.  If you are running low on a resource, it seems to make sense to be more efficient in its use.  However, that increased efficiency leads to a net increase in use:

The problem with efficiency gains is that we inevitably reinvest them in additional consumption.

Of course, it's not bad to increase efficiency. It often leads to reduced costs or greater output. But it won't lead to reduced consumption.

Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World

After The Big Short, I decided I liked reading Michael Lewis.  So I read his latest.  What is the new Third World?

Europe.

In Boomerang, Lewis tours the countries most decimated (so far) by the current debt crisis.  It's not that he makes light of their plights, but he does frame them within the context of their national identities:

The tsunami of cheap credit that rolled across the planet between 2002 and 2008 was more than a simple financial phenomenon: it was temptation, offering entire societies the chance to reveal aspects of their characters they could not normally afford to indulge.

Icelanders wanted to stop fishing and become investment bankers. The Greeks wanted to turn their country into a piñata stuffed with cash and allow as many citizens as possible to take a whack at it. The Germans wanted to be even more German; the Irish wanted to stop being Irish.

Michael Lewis's investigation of bubbles beyond our shores is so brilliantly, sadly hilarious that it leads the American reader to a comfortable complacency: oh, those foolish foreigners. But when he turns a merciless eye on California and Washington, DC, we see that the narrative is a trap baited with humor, and we understand the reckoning that awaits the greatest and greediest of debtor nations.


Edit: This stuff is real:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16472310

The Overton Window (the concept, not the novel)

I love it when someone elegantly articulates something that we've all been thinking about...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window